The Belt and Road Initiative, announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Kazakhstan on September 7, 2013, with the proposal of a “New Silk Road” in line with the goal of reviving the “Historical Silk Road”, reflects a peaceful world imagination based on cooperation shaped on a win-win logic in terms of proposing to establish new cooperation in a period of increasing competition and contradictions between states at the global level.
The initiative, which aims to connect China and Europe, aims to increase international integration through transportation routes, energy routes and telecommunications. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the steps taken by the Belt and Road Initiative in the regional-global integration aspect.
At its core, CPEC is a corridor that aims to deliver China-based products to the world through the Port of Gwadar, while contributing to the development of Pakistan through investments in its infrastructure. A debate on CPEC in recent times has been the expansion of CPEC to include Afghanistan.
In August 2021, following the United States’ (US) military withdrawal from Afghanistan, this issue has become more frequently discussed. It is evident that the inclusion of Afghanistan in CPEC will strengthen the Central Asia-South Asia interaction.
Moreover, the said country harbors a route that will facilitate China’s interaction with the Middle East within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. This will complete a missing piece in terms of establishing trade corridors that prioritize mutual interests at the global level. In such an environment, the Taliban’s attitude towards CPEC gains importance.
At this point, it should be noted that the most important problem the Taliban faces is the problem of international legitimacy, i.e. recognition. Because of this problem, the Taliban has difficulty attracting investment to Afghanistan. This, in turn, deepens the employment problem in the country and accentuates economic problems. In such an environment, the extending of CPEC to Afghanistan is also an opportunity for the Taliban administration. It is foreseeable that if Afghanistan joins CPEC, China’s infrastructure investments in the country will increase. Of course, this will contribute to the welfare of the Afghan people.
In fact, the legal infrastructure for the expansion of CPEC to Afghanistan was established during the ousted regime. On May 15, 2017, China and Afghanistan signed a Customs Cooperation Agreement to improve trade relations and eliminate customs problems. In addition, in the same year, the China-Afghanistan Joint Economic and Trade Commission agreed to enhance cooperation in investment, trade, infrastructure and corridors. The parties also signed a number of agreements in this context. The volume of trade relations between China and Afghanistan increased regularly between 2013 and 2021 and reached 250 million USD in 2021, which can be characterized as the result of these efforts.
At this point, it should be emphasized that the development of these relations despite the US is of great importance. It is known that the US uses various proxy actors to destabilize the Belt and Road Initiative and the corridors in this context. Therefore, the progress made in China-Afghanistan relations during the period of American occupation means that the second Taliban era holds great opportunities for CPEC in particular and the Belt and Road Initiative in general.
As a matter of fact, in September 2021, the Taliban announced that Afghanistan would take part in China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and protect Beijing’s interests, and that the country needed Beijing’s investment and support for its reconstruction. During the meeting, Abdulsalam Hanafi, who was then serving as the deputy head of the Taliban’s political office in Doha, made the following statement that Afghanistan could be involved in CPEC:
“China has been a trustworthy friend of Afghanistan. The Taliban are keen to continue developing friendly relations between Afghanistan and China and will never allow any power to use Afghan territory to threaten China’s interests.”
As of the current stage, it is known that China is one of the leading actors developing a constructive attitude towards the resolution of the Afghan conflict. The Beijing administration, which continues its humanitarian aid to the Afghan people and takes care to draw the Taliban to the ground of dialogue, has also speeded up its investments in the country. The most evident example of this is the Taliban’s signing of a cooperation agreement with the Chinese company CAIPEC in January 2023 for the exploitation of oil fields in the north of the country.
As a result, while Afghanistan is in need of investments, the country’s inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative in the context of CPEC will greatly contribute to establishing the Central Asia-South Asia-Middle East connection and strengthening the bridges of cooperation established at the global level. Therefore, the expansion of CPEC to include Afghanistan seems to be in line with the expectations and interests of all parties and points to a new form of relationship based on a win-win approach.