China’s Five-Year Plans, as an extension of the socialist planning tradition, serve as the core documents guiding national development. These plans shape not only domestic economic objectives but also the dynamics of China’s international relations. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), built upon the recommendations of the Fourth Plenum, places high-quality development, technological autonomy, and ecological harmony at its center. By adopting a strategy of managed competition within the context of global dynamics, the plan seeks to transform internal resilience into external influence. In this regard, its environmental protection policies highlight ecological diplomacy, regulations targeting foreign investors emphasize economic interdependence, and strategic adaptation underscores China’s geopolitical positioning. Key priorities include industrial modernization, the development of innovative sectors, and the strengthening of the domestic market. The plan is aligned with China’s long-term vision of completing socialist modernization by 2035. At a time of increasing global uncertainty, it aims to balance internal consolidation with external engagement, positioning China as a more resilient actor in a multipolar world.[i] [ii]
Environmental Protection and Global Ecological Cooperation
First, the plan prioritizes ecosystem integrity by emphasizing the systematic restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, farmland, grasslands, and deserts. The target of increasing grassland coverage to 57 percent and vegetation coverage to 52 percent reflects a shift from green-oriented management to comprehensive environmental protection. This approach includes biodiversity restoration efforts and controlled pilot projects in regions such as the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau. Measures such as technological innovation, seed banking, and rotational grazing are designed to protect biodiversity while optimizing the balance between pasture and livestock. To accelerate the peaking of carbon emissions and the achievement of carbon neutrality, the plan places strong emphasis on expanding renewable energy sources and restoring ecosystems. By increasing forest and grassland coverage, China aims to raise its annual carbon absorption capacity to 1.2 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent[iii]. The green transition also involves the radical transformation of traditional industries, encouraging the establishment of zero-carbon industrial parks.[iv]
From an international relations perspective, these policies can be interpreted as instruments of ecological diplomacy. Through the concept of “one grassland, one world,[v]” China promotes the international exchange of plant genetic resources, thereby strengthening its leadership role in the Global South. Aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the plan’s initiatives on protecting green spaces and water resources contribute to improving the health of transboundary ecosystems.
According to Keohane, cooperation in the management of global commons generates mutual gains, and China’s contribution can be understood within this framework. For instance, the national gene bank in Xiong’an, supported by six regional sub-centers, has decided to facilitate international gene discovery. This move represents a form of norm-building that counterbalances Western criticism regarding carbon emissions. By advancing the “Beautiful China” Initiative, the plan seeks to improve air, water, and ecosystem quality, reinforcing China’s leadership claims in global forums such as COP30. China also plans to maintain its leading position in renewable energy production by expanding its solar, wind, and hydropower capacities and broadening the dissemination of green technologies.[vi]
From a realist perspective, however, grassland restoration also elevates the issue to the level of national security. By preventing ecological degradation, it contributes to food security and strengthens China’s position in climate diplomacy. The integration of the green transition with the Beautiful China Initiative further enhances China’s leadership claims in forums such as COP30. From a constructivist viewpoint, this reflects an effort to universalize the norm of ecological civilization. China is transforming Western-centered environmentalism into a more Asia-oriented narrative. The plan’s environmental measures convert domestic development into external legitimacy, reshaping global environmental regimes. For example, green technology exports provide China with a viable response to the European Union’s Green Deal. By strengthening biodiversity protection programs, China also promotes land–sea coordination and the development of a circular economy.
Carbon footprint management and climate adaptation strategies further increase the plan’s contribution to international norm-setting. Through the expansion of carbon markets, green finance models are being exported to developing countries. Current policies position China’s vision of ecological civilization as a global public good, counter Western environmental criticism, and expand China’s leadership space in the Asia–Pacific region.
Foreign Investment and Global Trade Dynamics
The plan prioritizes the upgrading of traditional industries—such as mining, metallurgy, and textiles—through digitalization, while placing new high-quality productive forces, including semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum technologies, at the forefront. For foreign enterprises, the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (the “negative list”), cross-border data flows, and free trade zones offer expanded opportunities. For instance, two-way investment is actively encouraged at the Hainan Free Trade Port. Under the dual circulation framework, domestic demand is expected to grow while global supply chains become more diversified. To further attract foreign investment, the plan proposes shortening the negative list and simplifying data security certification procedures. Improvements in data security governance are likely to expand market access in the services sector. In addition, the development of free trade zones is expected to deepen bilateral agreements with ASEAN and the European Union. At the Hainan Port, for example, special incentives are being provided for green energy investments.[vii]
These policies reflect the neoliberal logic of economic interdependence. From the perspective of Keohane and Nye’s theory of complex interdependence, the expansion of China’s domestic market—aimed at overcoming the middle-income trap—reduces the likelihood of conflict by integrating foreign firms into the Chinese economy. Investment in future-oriented sectors and the promotion of partnerships help stimulate global growth. Renewable energy, for example, has become a key area of competition for companies from the European Union and the United States. At the same time, producers in developing countries are affected by China’s export surplus, leading to rising tariffs in countries such as Mexico and India. By strengthening domestic demand, the plan seeks to reduce dependence on exports. Consumption-driven growth, supported by services and tourism, further diversifies China’s role in global supply chains. The internationalization of the RMB aims to increase China’s share in global trade by shaping green finance standards.[viii]
From a realist perspective, technological autonomy reinforces national power. By strengthening the internal circulation in response to U.S. sanctions, the plan seeks to manage ongoing trade conflicts. From a constructivist viewpoint, the internationalization of the yuan contributes to the normalization of the “China model,” particularly through the setting of global standards in areas such as green finance. This dynamic positions the plan as a bridge between domestic reform and external openness. High-tech exports—such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries—provide China with a competitive advantage in global markets while limiting U.S. leverage. This approach allows China to maintain its central position in global supply chains while enhancing resilience against geopolitical risks.
The 15th Plan places innovation at the core of industrial modernization, strengthening strategic capacities in high-potential regions such as the Yangtze River Delta. It encourages selective cooperation in response to global risk-avoidance trends. With a target of raising R&D spending above 3 percent of GDP, national innovation hubs are being established. While promoting foreign partnerships in biotechnology and quantum technologies, the plan continues to prioritize national security. The integration of the digital economy and artificial intelligence accelerates the green transformation of traditional sectors, creating new opportunities for foreign investors.
Strategic Adaptation and Geopolitical Positioning
The plan has transformed China into a strategic actor, reshaping the dynamics of international relations across ecological, economic, and geopolitical dimensions. Strategic adaptation functions as a balancing mechanism that contributes to global stability. For example, policies aimed at technological autonomy have enabled China to achieve greater independence in semiconductors and artificial intelligence in response to U.S. export controls, while simultaneously diversifying supply chains and offering a structural response to “China+1” strategies. Similarly, in regional policy, the emphasis on peaceful reunification seeks to prevent conflict scenarios, while military modernization—such as the development of hypersonic weapons and sixth-generation fighter aircraft—enhances deterrence. By strengthening the national security system, the plan aims to expand overseas security guarantees and increase resilience against sanctions. Within this framework, the “new era” emphasis in the One China strategy prioritizes peaceful reunification. Meanwhile, the Global Development Initiative (GDI) expands infrastructure investments in Africa and Latin America, reinforcing China’s influence within the United Nations system.[ix]
By extending its influence across the Global South, the Global Development Initiative responds to declining external demand during trade wars by centering the domestic market and managing great power competition through a strategic resilience lens. Within this framework, internal consolidation is transformed into external influence, enabling China to shape norms in an increasingly multipolar world. For instance, the e-CNY, with transaction volumes reaching 14.2 trillion yuan, enhances financial sovereignty by offering an alternative to U.S.-centered financial systems. Through the concept of “new quality productive forces,” the plan emphasizes autonomy in artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and biotechnology, aiming to seize strategic initiative in U.S.–China competition. By regulating overseas investments, risk management within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is further strengthened.[x]
When examined through the core paradigms of international relations theory, the Five-Year Plan reveals China’s strategic adaptation as a multilayered transformation of power. From a realist perspective, the plan aligns with Mearsheimer’s thesis on great power competition. China’s pursuit of autonomy vis-à-vis U.S. hegemony is operationalized through technological and economic leverage. Semiconductor self-sufficiency, for example, reflects the balance-of-power logic anticipated by Waltz’s structural realism. However, this approach also increases the risk of triggering the Thucydides Trap, potentially hardening alliance dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, such as QUAD and AUKUS. While the plan’s regional emphasis manages tensions through peaceful reunification rhetoric, hypersonic weapons modernization may be interpreted, within power transition theory, as a hegemonic challenge.
From a liberal perspective, Keohane and Nye’s model of complex interdependence helps explain the plan’s dual circulation strategy. Rising domestic demand—supported by the target of allocating 3 percent of GDP to R&D—and the integration of foreign investment through the shortening of the negative list strengthen economic ties and reduce the likelihood of conflict. Green diplomacy, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, leverages international institutions to generate mutual gains. For example, green investments under the BRI in the Global South hybridize Ikenberry’s liberal institutional order with Chinese norms. However, the liberal interpretation remains limited. The plan’s selective openness challenges neoliberal institutions by advancing the internationalization of the yuan and constructing an alternative financial network to U.S. dollar hegemony.
From a constructivist standpoint, Wendt’s assertion that “anarchy is what states make of it” is reflected in the plan’s emphasis on norm construction. Concepts such as “ecological civilization” and “Beautiful China” reinterpret Western-centric environmentalism through an Asia-focused narrative, redefining global norms. Through the Global Development Initiative, China institutionalizes a win-win identity across developing countries.
In conclusion, viewed through a multidimensional lens, the plan’s hybrid structure evokes Gramsci’s concept of hegemony. China is transforming its economic advantages into a pursuit of global hegemony through cultural and normative instruments. The fragile nature of international relations may evolve U.S.–China competition into a technology-centered Cold War, fragmenting global supply chains. For instance, shifts toward Vietnam in response to China+1 strategies could accelerate economic bloc formation in Asia. As an empirical case of a post-hegemonic order, the plan manages both the rhetoric of China’s peaceful rise and the realities of power asymmetry, simultaneously suppressing and postponing the potential for conflict.
[i] “China’s 15th Five-Year Plan Recommendations – Key Takeaways for Foreign Businesses”, Chine Briefing, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-recommendations-key-takeaways-for-foreign-businesses/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[ii] Key recommendations document outlines priorities in China’s next five-year blueprint”, The State Council The People’s Republic of China, https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202510/25/content_WS68fc10abc6d00ca5f9a0703e.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[iii] “Full text: Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China’s Plans and Solutions”, The State Council The People’s Republic of China, https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202511/08/content_WS690ee812c6d00ca5f9a076cd.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[iv] “China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: A blueprint for people-centred development”, Friends of Socialist China, https://socialistchina.org/2025/11/28/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-a-blueprint-for-people-centred-development/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[v]New plan will be a road map for a stronger future”, China Daily, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/15/WS693f5d7aa310d6866eb2e8fa.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[vi] China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and its implications for foreign businesses”, Ecovis, https://global.ecovis.com/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-and-its-implications-for-foreign-businesses/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[vii] ‘’same spot’’
[viii] “China’s Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”, ICAS, https://chinaus-icas.org/research/chinas-fifteenth-five-year-plan-stability-modernization-and-the-strategic-logic-behind-its-domestic-priorities/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[ix] China’s five-year plan confronts economic reform amid geopolitical competition”, The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-five-year-plan-confronts-economic-reform-amid-geopolitical-competition/(Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).
[x] China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: The five years that could rewrite US-China power”, Think China, https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-five-years-could-rewrite-us-china-power, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2025).