As of October 4, 2025, all eyes in Beijing are on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Term of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The plenary session, which will take place from October 20-23, is a key step that will outline China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, covering the 2026-2030 period. Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that the plan is being prepared around themes such as the development of high-quality productive forces, high-quality growth, and people-centered development.[i] This statement reflects China’s efforts to adapt its economic strategies to global challenges. Historically, these plans continue China’s tradition of central planning since the Mao Zedong era and have been enriched in recent years with elements of the digital economy and sustainability.[ii]
In current international relations literature, China’s Five-Year Plans are considered a reflection of the country’s sui generis development model. This approach is often described as a strategy of “Selective Adaptation.”[iii] In this sense, it is frequently emphasized that China has charted its own unique path without imitating Western liberalism. This concept is examined in detail in Barry Naughton’s “The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth,”[iv] which emphasizes China’s strategy of balancing market reforms with state control. China’s process of adapting global norms in economic regulation to local conditions is defined as “Selective Adaptation.” This strategy is seen as a reflection of China’s efforts to participate in the international political economy on its own terms.
The 15th Five-Year Plan is seen as the central pillar of the three-year plan period (the 14th, 15th, and 16th Five-Year Plans), which aims to fundamentally achieve socialist modernization by 2035. It can be evaluated particularly in terms of its impact on Donald Trump’s radical policies in his second term and the future of relations between the United States (US) and China.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan symbolizes a shift away from the traditional industrialization model and toward a technology-focused “new development paradigm.” As Xi emphasized, the plan prioritizes development by adapting “high-quality productive forces, innovative sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and green energy” to local conditions.[v] This paradigm aligns with China’s “Double Loop” strategy and aims to strengthen domestic demand while continuing its opening up to the outside world. This strategy aims to build a sustainable and resilient economy by basing China’s economic growth on both domestic and international markets. It fundamentally aims to strengthen China’s economic independence against global economic uncertainties and external pressures[vi] while simultaneously maintaining its integration into the global economy.
The inner loop strengthens China’s economic independence and technological autonomy, while the outer loop ensures continued integration with global markets. However, the success of this strategy depends on increasing domestic consumption power, the pace of technological innovation, and the effectiveness of international collaborations. According to Graham Allison’s “Thucydides Trap” theory, this strategy has the potential to escalate tensions in the US-China rivalry. However, it also provides a framework that supports China’s peaceful rise.[vii]
The new plan aims to double the national product by 2035 by deepening the innovative growth target of the 14th Five-Year Plan.[viii] Another notable aspect of the plan is that the people-centered structure, which saw the public submit more than 3 million suggestions online, fulfills the rhetoric of top-down democracy outlined in the 2021 White Paper “Democracy That Works.” The proposals highlight elements such as the use of artificial intelligence for elder care, the expansion of community sports facilities, and the integration of science into popular culture, along with a socially stable growth model.
The innovation-focused structure of the 15th Five-Year Plan has the potential to lift China out of the middle-income trap and into global leadership. In line with this goal, research and development (R&D) spending under the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to increase by 7% annually.[ix] The digital transformation of traditional industries, the promotion of next-generation industries (e.g., quantum computing), and infrastructure investments for future industries promise to transform China from a tech giant to a technology leader.
Moreover, this domestically focused transformation has already resonated globally; the plan expands the high-standards initiative and deepens energy and trade ties with the Gulf States. In this regard, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been described as the “Global South-North Bridge.”[x]
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan could directly impact the trajectory of its competition with the US. Indeed, Trump’s “America First” doctrine has imposed a minimum tariff of 60% on China. Although the 10% general tariff, which went into effect in February 2025, was extended until November 2025, a wave of 10% tariffs has indirectly impacted China. These tariffs are seen as an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and reduce Chinese exports by 8% in the first half of 2025.[xi]
The emphasis on biotechnology and green energy in the 15th Five-Year Plan will challenge Trump’s promise to eliminate dependence on China in critical areas. For example, the plan’s emphasis on increased R&D could accelerate China’s efforts to establish its own semiconductor ecosystem in response to US chip sanctions. This, in turn, could lead Trump to ease tariffs affecting stock markets. Trump’s pursuit of a fair and equitable relationship with China aligns with the plan’s strategy of expanding the scope of the initiative. China’s investments in the Gulf and Africa could further pressure US allies in the Pacific.
In conclusion, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, beyond domestic transformation, is a manifesto redefining the global balance of power. By compelling Trump to make economic and geopolitical moves, it could alter the competitive landscape of US-China relations. While international relations literature positions this plan as a symbol of China’s peaceful yet determined rise, future stability appears to depend on the balance between China’s opening up and US protectionism. In short, Xi’s 2035 vision will be a turning point not only for China but for a multipolar world. From the current perspective, this vision will reshape global supply chains and increase developing countries’ orientation toward China.
Zeynep Çağla ERİN
[i] “China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: What We Know So Far”, China Briefing, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-what-we-know-so-far/, (Date Accession: 04.10.2025).
[ii] Naughton, B. J. (2018). The Chinese economy: Adaptation and growth. MIT Press.
[iii] Roland, G. (2021). China’s rise and its implications for International Relations and Northeast Asia. Asia and the Global Economy, 1(2), 100016.
[iv] Naughton, B. J. (2018). The Chinese economy: Adaptation and growth. MIT Press.
[v] “What To Expect From China’s 15th Five-Year Plan”, The US-China Business Council, https://www.uschina.org/articles/what-to-expect-from-chinas-15th-five-year-plan/, (Date Accession: 04.10.2025).
[vi] For example, the US-China trade wars and US technology sanctions.
[vii] Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
[viii] “The macroeconomic implications of China’s next five-year plan…”, Banking News, https://www.chinabankingnews.com/p/the-macroeconomic-implications-of, (Date Accession: 04.10.2025).
[ix] Ibid.
[x] “China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the Gulf: Partners in a Changing World Order”, Gulf International Forum, https://gulfif.org/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-and-the-gulf-partners-in-a-changing-world-order/, (Date Accession: 04.10.2025).
[xi] “US tariffs: What’s the impact on global trade and the economy?”, JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/us-tariffs, (Date Accession: 08.10.2025).